Within AARO
Why AARO Reports Cluster Near Sensors
AARO's dataset is shaped by where official aircraft, sensors, ranges and aviation reporting channels actually collect reports.
On this page
- Military and civil aviation reporting channels
- Geographic bias around assets and ranges
- Why bias changes interpretation, not importance
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Introduction
One of the most important facts about modern UAP data is that it is not a random sample of unusual things seen in the sky. The reports collected by the U.S. Department of Defense’s All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) are heavily shaped by where military aircraft fly, where advanced sensors operate, and where formal reporting systems exist. AARO itself has repeatedly acknowledged that its database shows a geographic collection bias near U.S. military assets and sensors. This means that apparent UAP “hotspots” often reflect concentrations of observation capability rather than concentrations of unexplained phenomena. Understanding this bias is essential when using AARO cases to study the causes of UFO reports. [U.S. Department of War]media.defense.govFY24 CONSOLIDATED ANNUAL REPORT ON UAP 508Department of WarFiscal Year 2024 Consolidated Annual Report on…November 14, 2024 — 14 Nov 2024 — AARO notes a continued geographic co…
Why AARO Reports Cluster Near Sensors
AARO receives most of its reports through military operational channels and aviation reporting systems rather than through unrestricted public submissions. As a result, the office naturally receives more reports from locations where trained personnel, aircraft crews, radar systems, infrared cameras, and other surveillance assets are already watching the sky. [U.S. Department of War]war.govdr jon kosloski director aaro media roundtable on the fy24 consolidated annualDepartment of WarDr. Jon Kosloski, Director, AARO, Media Roundtable on the…Nov 14, 2024 — It is also worth noting that AARO continues…
This pattern is not unique to AARO. In observational science, detection depends on where instruments are located. If most sensors are concentrated around military ranges, carrier groups, test areas, training corridors, and national-security facilities, then unusual observations will also appear concentrated there.
AARO’s own public materials explicitly describe this effect. The FY2024 report notes a “continued geographic collection bias” associated with locations near U.S. military assets and sensors operating globally. Earlier reporting described a similar pattern as a “strong but shifting collection bias” toward restricted military airspace because military personnel and military sensors are disproportionately present in those areas. U.S. Department of War [Wikisource]en.wikisource.orgWikisourceFiscal Year 2023 Consolidated Annual Report on Unidentified…Feb 22, 2024 — Reporting from this period continues to depict a…
Military and Civil Aviation Reporting Channels
The structure of the reporting system matters as much as the observations themselves.
Most AARO cases originate from:
- Military pilots and aircrew.
- Military surveillance systems.
- Operators working in restricted or special-use airspace.
- Civil and commercial aviation reporting channels connected to the Federal Aviation Administration. [U.S. Department of War]war.govdr jon kosloski director aaro media roundtable on the fy24 consolidated annualDepartment of WarDr. Jon Kosloski, Director, AARO, Media Roundtable on the…Nov 14, 2024 — It is also worth noting that AARO continues…
These groups are far more likely than ordinary members of the public to notice, record, and formally report unusual aerial observations. They also often possess sensor data that can later be analysed.
The result is a dataset skewed toward places where reporting is expected and encouraged. A sighting over a remote ocean with military patrol aircraft nearby has a much greater chance of entering the official record than an equivalent sighting over an unmonitored region. This does not imply that one location is objectively more anomalous than the other; it means one location has better surveillance coverage.
AARO officials have also discussed efforts to reduce stigma and increase reporting from commercial pilots. As civilian reporting has increased, the concentration around military sites has reportedly become somewhat less pronounced, illustrating how reporting channels directly influence the apparent distribution of incidents. [jbsa.mil]jbsa.mildod examining unidentified anomalous phenomenamilitary assets and sensors. However, this density has been reduced somewhat by an…Read more…
Geographic Bias Around Assets and Ranges
When AARO maps the locations of reports, clusters emerge around areas where U.S. military operations are common.
The FY2024 report highlighted concentrations associated with military operating areas and regions where U.S. forces routinely deploy advanced sensors. During the reporting period, dozens of reports originated from military operating areas, while large numbers also came from regions such as the East Asian seas where U.S. military assets are active. Many of those reports were eventually resolved as balloons or unmanned aircraft systems. [U.S. Department of War]war.govdr jon kosloski director aaro media roundtable on the fy24 consolidated annualDepartment of WarDr. Jon Kosloski, Director, AARO, Media Roundtable on the…Nov 14, 2024 — It is also worth noting that AARO continues…
Public discussion of the report has sometimes interpreted these clusters as evidence that anomalous objects favour certain regions. AARO’s own explanation is more mundane: the clusters correspond closely to where observation systems are concentrated. Independent reporting on the FY2024 data reached the same conclusion, noting that apparent hotspots align with areas of heavy military surveillance rather than demonstrating that unusual objects preferentially appear there. [U.S. Department of War]war.govdr jon kosloski director aaro media roundtable on the fy24 consolidated annualDepartment of WarDr. Jon Kosloski, Director, AARO, Media Roundtable on the…Nov 14, 2024 — It is also worth noting that AARO continues…
This is a classic example of an observational-selection effect. The database is strongest where collection capability is strongest.
A Concrete Example: Sensors Create Cases
Many publicly released AARO cases illustrate how sensor availability influences what enters the database.
The official imagery archive contains numerous reports originating from infrared sensors aboard U.S. military platforms. Several cases were eventually identified as balloons, migratory birds, or other ordinary objects after detailed review. Others remain unresolved because available information was insufficient for a confident identification. In each instance, however, the observation existed in the first place because a military sensor detected and recorded it. [AARO]aaro.milUNCLASSIFIED FY23 Consolidated Annual Report on UAP Oct 25 2023 1236Fiscal Year 2023 Consolidated Annual Report on…Most reports still reflect a bias towards restricted military airspace, a result of rep…
This creates an important asymmetry. Objects that pass through heavily monitored airspace are more likely to become UAP cases, regardless of whether they are extraordinary. Objects in poorly monitored regions may never generate a report at all.
Consequently, the AARO database partly reflects the footprint of surveillance infrastructure rather than solely the distribution of unexplained aerial events.
Why Bias Changes Interpretation, Not Importance
Recognising reporting bias does not mean the reports are unimportant.
In fact, observations near military assets can be especially valuable because they are often accompanied by multiple sources of data, trained observers, and detailed operational records. Such cases may provide better evidence than many traditional civilian UFO reports. [U.S. Department of War]war.govdr jon kosloski director aaro media roundtable on the fy24 consolidated annualDepartment of WarDr. Jon Kosloski, Director, AARO, Media Roundtable on the…Nov 14, 2024 — It is also worth noting that AARO continues…
The caution is different: readers should avoid treating the geographic distribution of AARO reports as a map of where unexplained phenomena occur most frequently. It is better understood as a map of where detection, recording, and reporting occur most frequently.
For researchers studying the causes of UFO reports, this distinction is crucial. A cluster of reports near military ranges may indicate:
- Dense sensor coverage.
- High levels of aviation activity.
- Greater reporting incentives.
- More opportunities for balloons, drones, birds, satellites, and aircraft to be detected.
- Better preservation of evidence after an event. [U.S. Department of War]war.govdr jon kosloski director aaro media roundtable on the fy24 consolidated annualDepartment of WarDr. Jon Kosloski, Director, AARO, Media Roundtable on the…Nov 14, 2024 — It is also worth noting that AARO continues… [AARO]aaro.milAAROUAP Imagery… (AARO) consisting of ten minutes and thirty seconds of video footage from an infrared sensor aboard a U.S. military pl…
In other words, reporting bias affects the statistical interpretation of the dataset, not the seriousness of individual cases.
What This Means for Understanding UFO Reports
AARO’s acknowledgement of reporting bias is itself an important clue about how modern UFO databases are formed. The office’s records are shaped by surveillance networks, operational priorities, and reporting systems. Areas with more sensors generate more reports; areas with fewer sensors generate fewer reports.
For anyone analysing UFOs as potential IFOs (identified flying objects), this is a reminder that the first question is not merely “What was observed?” but also “Why was this observation recorded while countless others were not?” AARO’s dataset demonstrates that detection systems strongly influence what becomes a UAP case, making reporting bias near military sensors one of the key factors in interpreting modern official UFO statistics. [U.S. Department of War]war.govdr jon kosloski director aaro media roundtable on the fy24 consolidated annualDepartment of WarDr. Jon Kosloski, Director, AARO, Media Roundtable on the…Nov 14, 2024 — It is also worth noting that AARO continues… [U.S. Department of War]war.govdr jon kosloski director aaro media roundtable on the fy24 consolidated annualDepartment of WarDr. Jon Kosloski, Director, AARO, Media Roundtable on the…Nov 14, 2024 — It is also worth noting that AARO continues…
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Endnotes
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Source: media.defense.gov
Title: FY24 CONSOLIDATED ANNUAL REPORT ON UAP 508
Link: https://media.defense.gov/2024/Nov/14/2003583603/-1/-1/0/FY24-CONSOLIDATED-ANNUAL-REPORT-ON-UAP-508.PDFSource snippet
Department of WarFiscal Year 2024 Consolidated Annual Report on...November 14, 2024 — 14 Nov 2024 — AARO notes a continued geographic co...
Published: November 14, 2024
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Source: war.gov
Title: dr jon kosloski director aaro media roundtable on the fy24 consolidated annual
Link: https://www.war.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3965734/dr-jon-kosloski-director-aaro-media-roundtable-on-the-fy24-consolidated-annual/Source snippet
Department of WarDr. Jon Kosloski, Director, AARO, Media Roundtable on the...Nov 14, 2024 — It is also worth noting that AARO continues...
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Source: en.wikisource.org
Link: https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Fiscal_Year_2023_Consolidated_Annual_Report_on_Unidentified_Anomalous_Phenomena/UAP_ReportingSource snippet
WikisourceFiscal Year 2023 Consolidated Annual Report on Unidentified...Feb 22, 2024 — Reporting from this period continues to depict a...
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Source: aaro.mil
Title: UNCLASSIFIED FY23 Consolidated Annual Report on UAP Oct 25 2023 1236
Link: https://www.aaro.mil/Portals/136/PDFs/UNCLASSIFIED-FY23_Consolidated_Annual_Report_on_UAP-Oct_25_2023_1236.pdfSource snippet
Fiscal Year 2023 Consolidated Annual Report on...Most reports still reflect a bias towards restricted military airspace, a result of rep...
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Source: jbsa.mil
Title: dod examining unidentified anomalous phenomena
Link: https://www.jbsa.mil/News/News/Article/3966080/dod-examining-unidentified-anomalous-phenomena/Source snippet
military assets and sensors. However, this density has been reduced somewhat by an...Read more...
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Source: aaro.mil
Link: https://www.aaro.mil/UAP-Cases/Official-UAP-Imagery/Source snippet
AAROUAP Imagery... (AARO) consisting of ten minutes and thirty seconds of video footage from an infrared sensor aboard a U.S. military pl...
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Source: aaro.mil
Link: https://www.aaro.mil/Portals/136/PDFs/AARO_Mission_Brief_2025.pdfSource snippet
The US Defense Department & The UAP MissionAARO's reliance on DoD-sourced reports leads to a collection bias near major [range]({{ 'range/' | relative_url }}) and test fa...
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Source: aaro.mil
Link: https://www.aaro.mil/Source snippet
AARO HomeWelcome to the website for the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO). Our team of experts leads the U.S. government's effo...
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Source: aaro.mil
Title: Congressional Press Products
Link: https://www.aaro.mil/Congressional-Press-Products/Source snippet
Congressional/Press Products11/14/2024, TRANSCRIPTS, Dr. Jon Kosloski, Director, AARO, Media Roundtable on the FY24 Consolidated Annual R...
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Source: aaro.com
Title: Your Partner in Group Reporting | CPM software & more
Link: https://aaro.com/en/Source snippet
Complete software, wide range of services, online support...
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Source: war.gov
Title: department of defense releases the annual report on unidentified anomalous phen
Link: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3964824/department-of-defense-releases-the-annual-report-on-unidentified-anomalous-phen/Source snippet
Department of Defense Releases the Annual Report on...14 Nov 2024 — The remaining 272 reports featured UAP incidents that occurred betwe...
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Source: war.gov
Title: the department of defense launches the all domain anomaly resolution office web
Link: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3513171/the-department-of-defense-launches-the-all-domain-anomaly-resolution-office-web/Source snippet
The Department of Defense Launches the All-domain...31 Aug 2023 — The All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office's new website provides the pu...
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Source: aaro.org
Link: https://aaro.org/Source snippet
Association of Americans Resident Overseas: AAROThe Association of Americans Resident Overseas (AARO), founded in 1973 is a global, non-p...
Additional References
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Source: defensescoop.com
Link: https://defensescoop.com/2023/10/31/dod-invites-past-and-present-military-personnel-and-contractors-to-report-uap-activity-via-new-portal/Source snippet
DOD invites past and present military personnel...31 Oct 2023 — Those reports will support the making of AARO's in-the-works Historical...
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Source: newspaceeconomy.ca
Title: the department of defenses 2024 report on unidentified anomalous phenomena
Link: https://newspaceeconomy.ca/2025/08/22/the-department-of-defenses-2024-report-on-unidentified-anomalous-phenomena/Source snippet
military sites and sensors worldwide, showing a bias in collection. Eighty-one reports came from U.S. military areas.Read more...
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Source: flyingmag.com
Title: nearly 300 uap reports in less than a year dod tells congress
Link: https://www.flyingmag.com/nearly-300-uap-reports-in-less-than-a-year-dod-tells-congress/Source snippet
Nearly 300 UAP Reports in Less Than a Year, DOD Tells...Oct 19, 2023 — The incidents recorded during that time reflect “a strong but shi...
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Source: dni.gov
Title: Unclassified 2022 Annual Report UAP
Link: https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Unclassified-2022-Annual-Report-UAP.pdfSource snippet
2022 Annual Report on Unidentified Aerial Phenomena25 Jun 2021 — This report provides an overview for policymakers of UAP1 that have been...
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Source: flyingmag.com
Title: dod nearly 800 uap reports received in past year
Link: https://www.flyingmag.com/dod-nearly-800-uap-reports-received-in-past-year/Source snippet
DOD: Nearly 800 UAP Reports Received in Past Year14 Nov 2024 — The Department of Defense received nearly 800 reports of unidentified anom...
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Source: scribd.com
Title: AARO Annual Report on UAP FY2024 Ft AsTechR
Link: https://www.scribd.com/document/825619489/AARO-Annual-Report-on-UAP-FY2024-Ft-AsTechRSource snippet
AARO 2024 Annual UAP Report Summary | PDFGeographic Trends AARO notes a continued geographic collection bias based on locations near U.S...
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Source: Wikipedia
Title: All domain Anomaly Resolution Office
Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All-domain_Anomaly_Resolution_OfficeSource snippet
All-domain Anomaly Resolution OfficeThe All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) is an office within the United States Office of th...
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Source: Wikipedia
Title: All domain Anomaly Resolution Office
Link: https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/All-domain_Anomaly_Resolution_OfficeSource snippet
All-domain Anomaly Resolution OfficeL'All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO, littéralement « Bureau de résolution des anomalies t...
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Source: metabunk.org
Title: aaro 2024 annual report on uap.13762
Link: https://www.metabunk.org/threads/aaro-2024-annual-report-on-uap.13762/Source snippet
AARO 2024 Annual Report on UAP14 Nov 2024 — This report covers unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) reports from. May 1, 2023 to June 1...
Published: May 1, 2023
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Source: defensescoop.com
Link: https://defensescoop.com/2024/11/14/uap-aaro-chief-unveils-pentagon-annual-caseload-analysis-new-efforts/Source snippet
'The truly anomalous': New AARO chief unveils Pentagon's...Nov 14, 2024 — 'The truly anomalous': New AARO chief unveils Pentagon's annua...
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