Within Balloons
Why Did the Aguadilla Objects Look So Fast?
In the Aguadilla footage, aircraft motion and changing viewing geometry made slow windborne objects appear to cross the ground rapidly.
On this page
- What the infrared video appeared to show
- How aircraft motion changed the apparent track
- Why reconstructed speeds matched drifting objects
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Introduction
The Aguadilla infrared video looks, at first sight, like strong evidence for an unusually fast object. A dark thermal target appears to sweep across Rafael Hernández Airport and the surrounding terrain while a US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) aircraft tracks it from above. Earlier analysis by the Scientific Coalition for UAP Studies (SCU) interpreted portions of the footage as showing speeds approaching 100 mph.[Zenodo]zenodo.org2013 Aguadilla Puerto Rico UAP: The detailed analysis of an Unidentified Anomalous Phenomenon captured by the Department of Homelan…
A later reconstruction by the US All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO), published in March 2025, reached a dramatically different result. By reconstructing the CBP aircraft’s changing position, the infrared sensor’s viewing direction and the target’s possible location in three dimensions, AARO calculated an actual target speed of about 8 mph (3.6 m/s) — close to the recorded 9.8 mph (4.4 m/s) wind. AARO concluded that the striking impression of rapid flight was principally motion parallax: the fast-moving camera platform and changing line of sight made slow windborne objects appear to race across the ground.[AARO]aaro.milPuerto Rico UAP Case ResolutionAARO Puerto Rico UAP Case Resolution…
That difference — roughly 8 mph in the reconstruction versus apparently aircraft-like or greater speeds in the imagery — is what makes Aguadilla particularly useful for understanding how ordinary airborne objects can produce extraordinary-looking UAP footage.
What the infrared video appeared to show
The footage was recorded on 26 April 2013 by an infrared sensor aboard a CBP De Havilland Canada Dash 8 operating around Rafael Hernández Airport near Aguadilla, Puerto Rico. During the encounter, the aircraft was itself moving around the airport rather than observing from a fixed point. AARO reports that it followed an arcing flight path and climbed by approximately 1,725 feet, eventually reaching 3,600 feet before sensor contact was lost. Meanwhile, the distance between the aircraft and the objects nearly tripled.[AARO]aaro.milPuerto Rico UAP Case ResolutionAARO Puerto Rico UAP Case Resolution…
Those circumstances are crucial because the infrared video does not directly measure the target’s ground speed. It records an angular view from a moving camera. When the sensor tracks a target, keeping it relatively stable within the image, the landscape can stream rapidly behind it. Human vision naturally tends to attribute much of that relative movement to the tracked object.
The original SCU analysis took the apparent relationship between the target and background features much more literally. Its report described an object travelling through an urban environment at speeds approaching 100 mph and argued that measurements against the ground and ocean supported substantial variations in velocity.[Zenodo]zenodo.org2013 Aguadilla Puerto Rico UAP: The detailed analysis of an Unidentified Anomalous Phenomenon captured by the Department of Homelan… The resulting interpretation was remarkable: a small object apparently travelling rapidly at low altitude without obvious wings, propulsion or navigation lights.
That conclusion depended heavily on where the object was assumed to be in three-dimensional space. This is the central geometrical problem in Aguadilla. A two-dimensional infrared frame shows the direction from the sensor to the target, but unless the target’s range and altitude are independently established, it does not by itself establish which point on the landscape lies directly beneath the target.
How aircraft motion changed the apparent track
Motion parallax occurs whenever an observer moves relative to objects at different distances. Nearby objects shift across the observer’s field of view faster than distant ones. From a car, for example, roadside posts appear to shoot backwards while distant hills barely move, although neither is actually travelling across the landscape.
Aguadilla added another complication: the camera was not simply looking sideways from an aircraft travelling in a straight line. The Dash 8 was curving around the airport, climbing and continually changing its geometrical relationship to the target, while its steerable infrared turret tracked the objects. Zoom also changed how strongly movement filled the display. AARO therefore cautions that aircraft speed, sensor magnification and changing relative positions all influenced the objects’ apparent performance.[AARO]aaro.milPuerto Rico UAP Case ResolutionAARO Puerto Rico UAP Case Resolution…
This distinction matters because an infrared target can appear to move rapidly against a distant patch of ground without travelling rapidly over that ground. Imagine the aircraft, target and a distant background feature as three separate points. As the aircraft changes position, the line from camera to target sweeps across different points on the landscape behind it. If the camera remains centred on the target, it is the background that visibly rushes through the field of view. Without knowing the target’s range, treating that apparent crossing rate as its ground speed can produce a large error.
AARO attempted to remove that ambiguity using Systems Toolkit (STK), software used for modelling the geometry and trajectories of aircraft, spacecraft and sensors. Its reconstruction combined the aircraft’s recorded position with sensor parameters including azimuth, elevation and slant geometry, then projected the sensor’s changing lines of sight into a three-dimensional model.[AARO]aaro.milPuerto Rico UAP Case ResolutionAARO Puerto Rico UAP Case Resolution…
The reconstructed result was much less dramatic than the raw footage. AARO placed the objects initially near the north-eastern side of the airport at approximately 200 metres (656 feet) altitude. Rather than tracing the rapid, complicated ground path suggested by casual viewing of the video, they moved south-west in an approximately straight line while the aircraft and camera geometry changed around them. Sensor contact was eventually lost over the airport’s central parking apron.[AARO]aaro.milPuerto Rico UAP Case ResolutionAARO Puerto Rico UAP Case Resolution…
Independent conventional explanations had already focused on essentially the same geometrical problem before AARO published its resolution. Analyses collected by Metabunk and an earlier IPACO investigation argued that treating background motion as target motion could create a misleading trajectory, and proposed slowly drifting lantern-like objects instead.[Metabunk]metabunk.orgAguadilla Infrared Footage of 'UFOsAguadilla Infrared Footage of 'UFOs' - Probably Hot Air Wedding Lanterns | MetabunkJuly 26, 2017… AARO’s government reconstruction subsequently formalised the same broad explanation using the aircraft and sensor geometry.
Why reconstructed speeds matched drifting objects
The strongest quantitative point in AARO’s analysis is not simply that motion parallax could make something look fast. It is that the reconstructed motion produced a speed consistent with the weather.
AARO calculated that the objects travelled at approximately 3.6 metres per second, or 8 mph, in a straight line over land. The recorded wind was approximately 4.4 metres per second, or 9.8 mph, from the east/north-east. The direction and magnitude were therefore consistent with small objects being carried by the wind rather than powered craft making a high-speed transit.[AARO]aaro.milPuerto Rico UAP Case ResolutionAARO Puerto Rico UAP Case Resolution…
That is an important evidential distinction. Motion parallax on its own merely warns that apparent speed may be unreliable. The Aguadilla reconstruction goes further: once the observer’s movement is included, the resulting target motion falls into the range expected for passive drifting objects.
AARO consequently assessed with high confidence that the objects did not display anomalous speed or other performance beyond known technology. Its separate identification was less certain: it assessed with moderate confidence that the objects were two sky lanterns. Pixel analysis suggested that each was smaller than one metre across, and AARO reported that local hotels and resorts commonly used sky lanterns during celebrations. Variations in their infrared signatures were also considered compatible with lanterns whose heat sources were flickering and weakening.[AARO]aaro.milPuerto Rico UAP Case ResolutionAARO Puerto Rico UAP Case Resolution…
The distinction between those confidence levels is worth preserving. The geometry can undermine the claim of exceptional velocity without proving beyond doubt exactly what the objects were. AARO regarded the absence of anomalous performance as a high-confidence conclusion while retaining lower confidence in the sky-lantern identification itself.[AARO]aaro.milPuerto Rico UAP Case ResolutionAARO Puerto Rico UAP Case Resolution…
This also explains why Aguadilla fits particularly well among cases in which balloons, lanterns and other windborne objects become UAP reports. Their true speeds are often modest, but they provide few reliable visual cues to range. Put such an object in front of an infrared camera mounted on a comparatively fast aircraft, track it tightly, zoom the image and let distant terrain slide behind it, and a passive object can acquire the visual character of a fast powered craft.
The speed dispute is really a geometry dispute
The Aguadilla case has not become completely uncontested merely because AARO published a reconstruction. SCU, whose earlier analysis reached very different conclusions, continues to question aspects of the lantern interpretation. Its earlier response argued that a windborne explanation required speeds it considered too high for lanterns and disputed interpretations of the object’s apparent path and disappearance.[The SCU]explorescu.org2013 aguadilla puerto rico uap incident report a detailed analysisThe SCU2013 Aguadilla Puerto Rico UAP Incident: A Detailed Analysis…
After AARO’s March 2025 report appeared, SCU submitted technical questions asking for additional methodology and underlying analysis. In April 2025 it said AARO had acknowledged the questions but was not then prepared to answer them, while indicating that some issues might be addressed in a future follow-up report. SCU therefore had not accepted AARO’s sky-lantern identification as settled.[The SCU]explorescu.orgThe SCUSCU Announcement on the AARO Investigation of the Aguadilla VideoApril 28, 2025…
That disagreement should not obscure the narrower lesson about apparent velocity. The competing interpretations are based on substantially different reconstructions of where the target was relative to the camera and terrain. Earlier high-speed estimates treated apparent displacement against background features as evidence for rapid physical movement; AARO’s reconstruction instead treats much of that displacement as the changing projection created by a moving observer.
This is precisely why range, altitude and platform motion are indispensable when deriving speed from UAP video. A camera provides angular information very well: it can show where something appears within its field of view. Converting that angular motion into metres per second requires additional knowledge about distance and geometry. Scientific approaches to UAP measurement consequently emphasise triangulation, radar-derived range or other independent measurements when attempting to establish genuine kinematics rather than relying on a single moving camera.[arXiv]arxiv.orgThe Scientific Investigation of Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP) Using Multimodal Ground-Based ObservatoriesMay 29, 2023…
Why Aguadilla looked extraordinary without extraordinary speed
The most memorable feature of the Aguadilla footage is the mismatch between visual impression and reconstructed motion. To a viewer, the object appears to sweep rapidly across kilometres of terrain. In AARO’s reconstruction, however, the target itself moves slowly and approximately straight with the wind while the aircraft performs much of the important movement.[AARO]aaro.milPuerto Rico UAP Case ResolutionAARO Puerto Rico UAP Case Resolution…
Several effects reinforce one another. The Dash 8 moves rapidly relative to a small airborne target. Its curved flight continually changes the viewing geometry. The infrared turret keeps the target near the centre of attention while the ground moves behind it. Magnification makes angular displacement more visually dramatic. The target’s unknown range removes the ordinary depth cues needed to judge its true velocity. Taken together, these effects make a slow object look like something crossing the landscape under its own power.
AARO’s accompanying reconstruction is particularly revealing because it separates movements that the original infrared display visually combines: the aircraft’s curved trajectory, the sensor’s changing line of sight and the objects’ assessed straight track. The US Air Force’s official presentation of that reconstruction describes the objects as travelling in a straight line at wind speed over land.[U.S. Air Force]af.milU.S. Air Force AF 75th AnniversaryU.S. Air ForceAF 75th AnniversaryMarch 20, 2025…
For interpreting UFO and UAP reports, that is the larger value of the Aguadilla case. Apparent speed in airborne sensor footage is not necessarily physical speed. When the observer is moving quickly and the target’s distance is uncertain, spectacular-looking motion can be generated by ordinary geometry. Aguadilla therefore demonstrates why reconstructing the camera platform must come before treating apparent ground crossing, acceleration or rapid transit as evidence of extraordinary flight.
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Endnotes
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